2
Jul
Jul
Market Snapshot
8:30 data sent stock indexes lower and some improvement in the rate markets; at 8:40 the 10 yr note traded +9/32 and mortgages +4/32. The DJIA futures was down 117 points. At 9:00 the 10 yr +8/32 at 3.52%, mortgage prices +6/32; the DJIA futures index -115. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -93, the 10 yr note +8/32 at 3.52% and mortgage prices +4/32.
June unemployment rate hit at 9.5% +0.1% frm May but -0.1% against the estimates at 9.6%. Non-farm payrolls were expected at -363K but were down 467K, yesterday’s ADP estimate was -473K (ADP is becoming more relevant than in the past). The chatter on the unemployment rate given it is increasing at a slower pace than earlier this year is that the rate of unemployment is slowing—a good thing. Not in my reasoning.
Also tucked somewhat behind the June employment report; weekly jobless claims were also released. Claims were expected to be down about 8K from last week. As reported, claims fell 13K from last week to 614K. Somewhat better, continuing claims did decline a little to 6.70 mil from 6.755 mil last week, but we can’t hang much on that tree given the decline of jobs in June.
At 10:00 May factory orders, expected to be up 1.4%, was up 1.2%; ex transportation orders +0.8%. April factory orders revised to +0.5% frm +0.7%, ex transportation in April revised from +0.1% to -0.2% The May increase in orders was the best increase since June 2008. No real reaction to the data with total focus today on the employment situation.
Looks like the crude oil has run its course and will continue to decline; commodity price movement is directly tied to how stocks trade. Crude oil increases and increases in all commodity prices in the past month have supported stock buying on the idea that if commodities are increasing it adds credence to the climb in stocks and an economic rebound.
Next up this morning; at 11:00 Treasury will give us the amounts of next week’s 3 yr, 10 yr and 30 yr auctions.
The bond and mortgage markets will close early today, at 2:00 edt. All markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of 4th of July on Sat.
“Your Partner In Success!”
Tony Frerking
Sr. Mortgage Consultant
PMZ Home Loans
1600 N. Carpenter Rd. Ste. C
Modesto, CA 95351
Direct: (209) 404-2200
Fax: (888) 345-2768 **NEW**